Since Zito won the Cy Young award in 2002 he's 55-46 on a team that averaged 90+ wins over those four years. The guy is not worth the $15+ million/per he will be asking. Not even close. I would rather go with with Wright and Karstens/Pavano on the back end than sign either Zito or Schmidt. There must be wiser options out there than these guys.
The real question is who can pitch a big game out of those pitchers available?
I'm not worried about winning 90-100 games next year. Our team has been built for endurance for years! We're designed to outlast Boston. That works well for the regular season, but not for the postseason.
Zito has had an ERA under 4.0 for 5 out of the 6 full seasons he has been pitching. During the 2006 season, out of Zito's ten losses, in seven of those games, Oakland scored one or zero runs! We all know wins/losses does not necessarily reflect a pitcher's overall talent, but if his team doesn't score more than a run, he doesn't have a shot at winning that game.
Now, his whip was high (1.40) in 2006, but I take that as an anamoly. He has a career 1.25 WHIP. for 6 full seasons he has averaged 182 K/season. He's a lefty. He was 2-1 against Boston last season.
Sure he's not the second coming, but would you rather spend $20 million for permission to speak to a Japanese pitcher who has never thrown in the majors or put that money towards a season and a third of Barry Zito? I think the japanese player is an extravagance more than paying Zito $15 million per year.
Pavano should not be allowed to pitch ever again. And Jaret Wright is not an improvement on Zito in any universe. And after a handful of games, who knows what we have in Karstens?
I don't know how the thing works with the Japanese pitcher. If we really have to spend $20 million to speak to him, and then pay him $10 million a year, of course that's absurd and we should forget it. But I'm not sure that's how it operates.
I'm not saying Zito is better than Lilly, of course, I'm just saying he's not cost efficient. Whoever signs him is going to have to pay him ace money in this market, and I don't believe he's an ace. He had a solid, #2-like year, but he pitched like a #3 the two previous seasons. Now, if cost isn't an issue, then sign him. Sign everybody. But as I've said before, I find it embarassing that we continue to outspend everybody by almost 100% or more and have nothing to show for it. I don't know about you guys, but I think it's been embarassing to be a Yankee fan the past three seasons.
Aside from the sticker-shock of a big contract (and the stigma that carries among the baseball world) in terms of big-game situations, who do you trust more: Zito or the other options you've mentioned?
I don't think Zito is a big-game pitcher, I do think he's got good stuff and he is defintiely a better option in a short series than someone like Jaret Wright or Carl Pavano.
I think you're right about that, he would be a bigger game pitcher than our other options, although Lilly has pitched well in the playoffs. I guess I basically see him as another Johnson. He's younger, so he'll pitch slightly above average for a few more seasons than Randy, but I think we'll dump a ton of money and at the end of the day kind of be in the same position. That's my guy feeling about Zito.
Well, the papers tell me that with Sheff's option coming due this Sunday, we will learn about a deal to move him at that time. Before the week is out, we will know what we get in exchange for the once-loved Gary Sheffield.
The Cubs and the Phils are in the mix according to rumors.
Thanks, Dan, that is helpful. So it's not like we'd be paying $30 or $40 million just to talk to the guy. That would presumably make up the bulk of his contract.
Asian pitchers have done very well in the bigs, and this guys might be the best of all of them. He's certainly worth a look
9 Comments:
Come home, Zito!
Since Zito won the Cy Young award in 2002 he's 55-46 on a team that averaged 90+ wins over those four years. The guy is not worth the $15+ million/per he will be asking. Not even close. I would rather go with with Wright and Karstens/Pavano on the back end than sign either Zito or Schmidt. There must be wiser options out there than these guys.
Ted Lilly over those four seasons on an inferior club:
49-44.
The real question is who can pitch a big game out of those pitchers available?
I'm not worried about winning 90-100 games next year. Our team has been built for endurance for years! We're designed to outlast Boston. That works well for the regular season, but not for the postseason.
Zito has had an ERA under 4.0 for 5 out of the 6 full seasons he has been pitching. During the 2006 season, out of Zito's ten losses, in seven of those games, Oakland scored one or zero runs! We all know wins/losses does not necessarily reflect a pitcher's overall talent, but if his team doesn't score more than a run, he doesn't have a shot at winning that game.
Now, his whip was high (1.40) in 2006, but I take that as an anamoly. He has a career 1.25 WHIP. for 6 full seasons he has averaged 182 K/season. He's a lefty. He was 2-1 against Boston last season.
Sure he's not the second coming, but would you rather spend $20 million for permission to speak to a Japanese pitcher who has never thrown in the majors or put that money towards a season and a third of Barry Zito? I think the japanese player is an extravagance more than paying Zito $15 million per year.
Pavano should not be allowed to pitch ever again. And Jaret Wright is not an improvement on Zito in any universe. And after a handful of games, who knows what we have in Karstens?
I don't know how the thing works with the Japanese pitcher. If we really have to spend $20 million to speak to him, and then pay him $10 million a year, of course that's absurd and we should forget it. But I'm not sure that's how it operates.
I'm not saying Zito is better than Lilly, of course, I'm just saying he's not cost efficient. Whoever signs him is going to have to pay him ace money in this market, and I don't believe he's an ace. He had a solid, #2-like year, but he pitched like a #3 the two previous seasons. Now, if cost isn't an issue, then sign him. Sign everybody. But as I've said before, I find it embarassing that we continue to outspend everybody by almost 100% or more and have nothing to show for it. I don't know about you guys, but I think it's been embarassing to be a Yankee fan the past three seasons.
Aside from the sticker-shock of a big contract (and the stigma that carries among the baseball world) in terms of big-game situations, who do you trust more: Zito or the other options you've mentioned?
I don't think Zito is a big-game pitcher, I do think he's got good stuff and he is defintiely a better option in a short series than someone like Jaret Wright or Carl Pavano.
I think you're right about that, he would be a bigger game pitcher than our other options, although Lilly has pitched well in the playoffs. I guess I basically see him as another Johnson. He's younger, so he'll pitch slightly above average for a few more seasons than Randy, but I think we'll dump a ton of money and at the end of the day kind of be in the same position. That's my guy feeling about Zito.
Well, the papers tell me that with Sheff's option coming due this Sunday, we will learn about a deal to move him at that time. Before the week is out, we will know what we get in exchange for the once-loved Gary Sheffield.
The Cubs and the Phils are in the mix according to rumors.
Thanks, Dan, that is helpful. So it's not like we'd be paying $30 or $40 million just to talk to the guy. That would presumably make up the bulk of his contract.
Asian pitchers have done very well in the bigs, and this guys might be the best of all of them. He's certainly worth a look
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