Good math
Check out this calculation from Tom Verducci on espn.com:
"Six-and-a-half games back with 38 games to play (New York has 39) is a brutally tough mathematical problem. Say the Yankees go 20-19 (hard to believe it won't be better; they have 20 games left against the Mariners, Royals, Orioles and Devil Rays). Boston would need to play .684 baseball (26-12) just to force a one-game playoff with New York."
"Six-and-a-half games back with 38 games to play (New York has 39) is a brutally tough mathematical problem. Say the Yankees go 20-19 (hard to believe it won't be better; they have 20 games left against the Mariners, Royals, Orioles and Devil Rays). Boston would need to play .684 baseball (26-12) just to force a one-game playoff with New York."
posted by Anthony at 4:14 PM
5 Comments:
Since this is a conversation about NY and Boston, I take a look at the other side of the fence in seeking guidance on this issue.
In failing to make any trades before the deadline, I think it's clear that Boston's front office has been reticent to improve their playoff run-- and this was with them in the *lead* of the division at the time. Some might say that they expected they would be able to make it on their own steam. I disagree. If Boston's front office didn't recognize the uphill battle they faced to win the AL East or even secure the Wild Card (despite their lead) borders on complete incompetence. And I feel like they did recognize the risk of failing to make a move and accepted it, which means they simply didn't care enought. In fact, it is almost as if Boston had conceded that they wouldn't make the playoffs. Our 5 game "massacre" last week revealed a lot about Boston's current state of affairs. I think that attitude trickles down to the clubhouse in a big way. Manny takes a bad day off on Monday, acting out like a child. Schilling is alone in keeping that rotation respectable, and he has not enjoyed any real run support in his last several starts. And Francona is not getting the support from the front office to WIN baseball games. It's probably too late for Boston to make any meaningful deals to solidify their rotation. They have lost Varitek, Gonzalez and Nixon to injuries. I don't see Boston taking control of their own destiny in this situation. I think Boston is trying to ease their salary expenditures now that they are in luxury-tax territory and unlike George Steinbrenner, the Boston ownership group (consisting in part of THE NEW YORK TIMES!) does not want to burn money like they have in the past. They've been trying to deal Manny for a long time, as his contract is absurdly high. In fact, this really might be Manny's last stand if they can work a deal at the end of the year to move him (hopefully to Queens, NY). But all of this is out there for peripheral consideration.
Like I said the other day, the AL East is ours to lose.
I think this "rebuilding" stuff coming out of the Red Sox camp is a convenient excuse for a miscalculation by their front office and poor performance by their players. Before I went to France, which was two days before the trading deadline, Boston was in good position. I don't think they forsaw their collapse. We certainly didn't. No one on this blog on July 31st thought the division was ours to lose, even after getting Abreu. It just so happens that the Yankees have come together at exactly the moment that the already bloodied Sox have started to lose steam. Guys like Lowell and Loretta and Timlin are playing old. So, I don't think Boston faced an uphill battle to the win the division at the trading deadline. I think they probably thought their chances were 50/50 or better, as we probably did. And even going into last weekend they had picked up two games in three days. So I think last weekend had to be a shock to their entire system, as it was to ours.
Boston's biggest mistake still stems from last year when they gave up Damon. He's been terrific for the Yanks, sparking big innings and scoring runs. Crisp has been awful. I think that's their only front office miscalculation. I feel they were victims of all the trade rumors, just like we were.
Actually aside from Manny, Ortiz, Papelbon, and Schilling that team has been just dreadful lately. I agree: Lowell, Timlin, and Loretta are old and hurting or losing steam. Beckett, wow, what a letdown. Varitek even before the injury was having a terrible season. Nixon, Crisp, Wakefield, and Wells were/are injured. The team fell apart, that's all there is to it.
And, the Yankees synergized at the exact moment. I'm feeling extremely confident, and I'm not afraid to say it. I don't think any of us can jinx this team.
Courage!
I think Damon may be the difference. As for the injuries, both teams have had their serious share. But no one could have predicted that we'd lose Sturtze and still be as many games up as we are.
Sturtze? Now THAT is funny.
I think we all agree, whatever Boston's confidence level at the trading deadline, they tried to do this season on the cheap. They're still a good team, but I doubt they have the personnel to nail down a wildcard at this point.
Damon is magnificent.
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