Tuesday, February 07, 2006

PROPOSED SPECS

Friends, at 3:30 am I awoke, covered in sweat and screaming at the top of my lungs, "Innings pitched! Innings pitched, damn you! Innings pitched!" Gus ran in, nude. And that's where the story ends...for you. Nonetheless, the unifying variable had come to me in a deep sleep.

I present to you the Marcavage System:

Offense: OPS (5), RBI (3), R (1), SB (1)

Pitching: ERA (5), IP (3), SV (1)


You may ask, "What are those funny parentheses?" Well, my friends, those are the genius of the system. I have weighed the categories in relation to one another in terms of value. Gone are the days where a SB will be worth *more* (because they are rarer) in fantasy value than the homerun! This system accounts for all the important skills a player could possess, but emphasizes those I think we can agree are most important: Getting on base and driving in runs.

I will elaborate.

Offense:

1. In my opinion, OPS is the great statistic. It combines plate discipline, average, and power into one category. It is also a finer measure of power hitting than mere homeruns, because it accounts for all power categories at once (homers, doubles, etc.). And it takes into account bases on balls, which is a valuable category often ignored in fantasy leagues.

2. RBI takes into account clutch hitting. It is an imperfect statistic, because it depends on runners being on base, but it's the best we can do to measure this important skill.

3. Runs. I know there was some talk about whether we should count runs. My feeling is yes (but at a low value), because there is some specific talent associated with running the bases. I don't like the category, because it's dependent on getting hit in, plus it's largely reflected in OPS, but it may capture something the others miss.

4. SB. Stolen bases, unlike most of the other categories, measures an independent skill, which makes it a good fantasy statistic. It's low value reflects the fact that it is a secondary skill, like base running, but one that I think deserves some recognition. I think the argument that there are only a few really good base-stealers has some merit, but isn't much of a worry when we value SBs at one and adds some strategy to the draft.

Some will undoubtedly argue about the absence of homeruns. In my opinion, the homerun is the most redundant statistic on the offensive side. If you take OPS, RBIs, and Runs together, you cover all the aspects of the homerun. If you insist on having it as a category for sentimental reasons, I suggest it be weighted as a one, since it is already given great weight in three other categories.

Pitching:

1. ERA. This statistic, of course, is the bottom line. If not for one catch, this might be the only statistic necessary in the pitching category.

2. IP: ERA, while the most important pitching statistic, is susceptible to dirty tricks. It needs to be kept honest with Innings Pitched, so a team cannot stock its staff with low-inning, low-ERA guys and beat the system. IP plus ERA also accounts for the value in wins, while squeezing out the luck aspect (for instance, whether your team gives you run support, etc.) I love these two categories together, because they really come down to the pitchers performance alone.

3. Saves: Although no doubt an overrated stat, it's a measure of clutch pitching that we should account for, though at a diminished value.

I know there was talk about Holds and Ks. I liked the holds idea until I looked it up to see exactly what it is. From Wikipedia:

"A hold is awarded to a relief pitcher if he enters in a save situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game without having relinquished that lead.

To receive a hold, the pitcher must not finish the game (thus becoming the closing pitcher) or be the winning pitcher."

I don't like this stat for several reasons. One, it favors middle relievers who enter the game with leads over those who come in during a tie or close game, which is illogical. Two, you can come in with a three run lead, give up two runs, leave the game and get a hold. Should someone get rewarded for that? Three, it is just too easy to get a hold. You come in, pitch to one batter in the six inning, leave and get a hold. It seems to me like a completely superfluous statistic. As for middle relievers, their skills are accounted for with ERA and IP. Also, we should probably only have three relief pitchers and five starters to account for the value of starters in the statistical categories.

As for Ks, they are a glamour stat, for sure, but any benefit they produce is reflected in ERA and IP. There is nothing unique about their value other than that they contribute to a better ERA.

Anyway, there it is. I will entertain objections and criticisms throughout the day. I know the system looks unusual, but don't be put off by the new and unusual. I think this system will give us a pure measure of production, and a legitimate champion.

-Steiner

24 Comments:

Blogger Anthony said...

For those who might not know, OPS is "On base percentage plus slugging percentage."

12:33 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

Go to hell with your "OPS" lesson, Steiner!

1:20 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

May I make a counter proposal- instead of making IP a stat, make IP a minimum standard for all teams, say 30-35 IP per week. That way you will guarantee that managers will have to throw a requisite number of guys. And as an alternative to IP as a stat, why not have HRs given up, or BAA?

1:23 PM  
Blogger Anthony said...

Both HRs allowed and BA against are reflected in ERA. Those stats are like WHIP. They are meaningless unless they affect ERA. So why not just count ERA?

Also, and this is a separate issue, but I don't like the start/sit format. I would rather play that your entire team is active all the time. We are playing AL only, so there won't be many, if any, quality players left for us to build "reserve" rosters with. But I think we should settle on the scoring method before we get into roster management.

1:29 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

No, after re-reading what you've written, I disagree with you keeping Ks out of the game. Of the top ten pitchers with Ks in the Al last year, only one had an ERA under 3.00 (Santana) and two had an ERA above 4.00! (Cabrera and Sabathia). Ks are not determinative of ERA, it is a sufficiently independent statistic and where the heck are "WINS"? Wins and Ks are staples for a reason, man. And wins is a separate enough category unto itself (of the top ten winning pitchers in the Al last year, three had ERA's above 4.00). I appreciate the thought you've put into this, but there's no sense in ignoring essential categories for the sake of simplicity and originality. Wins and Ks must be a part of this league.

1:31 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

Wait, you elft out WHIP as well?

1:34 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

As for HRs allowed being folded into WHIP, you're wrong again. The top Ten HRS allowed pitchers last year gave up between 28-35 HRs last season). Now, of those pitchers, two of them show up in the top ten for lowest WHIP. The top 4 pitchers for HRs allowed pitchers have WHIPs of 1.27 or below.

1:41 PM  
Blogger Anthony said...

Your argument that Ks have nothing to do with ERA is more of a reason to leave them out--they are irrelevant to outcome. I'm trying to develop a system that measures skill, not arbitrary stats just out there for the hell of it. Wins are arbitrary. They are covered by ERA and IP. For example, a guy throws 8 innings and gives up 1 run and loses. In theory, he deserves a win. Well, under my system, he is rewarded for that with ERA and IP. IP basically rewards pitchers for their performances, not whether their team had a good day on offense. You have to see where I'm coming from with this--I'm attempting to maximize the degree to which points reflect the player's actual performance and minimize the role of luck.

1:43 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

Listen, here's what I propose:

Batting: BA, OPS, RBI, R, SB
Pitching: Wins, ERA, SV, WHIP, Ks.

5 stats for offense, 5 for defense, no weighting, no sliderules or other methods of scientific methodology. This is fantasy baseball, not the moon launch.

1:44 PM  
Blogger Anthony said...

No, I said HR allowed were folded into ERA, which I'm sure they are. And it they're not, then they aren't a stat relevant enough to use! See what I mean?

1:45 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

I like the fact that some stats are unrelated because it forces us to consider more than two or three factors in choosing a player, and that makes this AL only league even more competitive. See, what you're proposing is something that will end up with very little league mobility in the end. You're limiting the amount of "managing" we can do by 1) limiting the number of categories to a stifling degree and 2) taking away alternative avenues for a manager to find players that would be good in some respects (batting average for example) but bad in others (RBIs, or OPS). And the same goes with pitching, a guy may have a crappy ERA but he's good for Wins or Ks. The lack of cohesion with the stats makes for a more interesting game, and it gives us a chance to make interesting choices for players. Folding categories into one another (and writing off a multitude of others that do measure talent) is too limiting. This is Johnson's Great Society all over again. Social engineering is a falsehood.

1:54 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

I've just gotten off the phone with Steiner... there is no accord, there is no peace. Pray, I ask you... pray for a miracle.

2:14 PM  
Blogger Dodort said...

I'm going to have to go ahead and agree with Cohen on this one, and you know how much that bothers me. Steiner, your system is just far too complicated, and it would also basically leave people drafting offensive players based upon one stat, instead of trying to build a balanced team, which is half the fun. I know that HR help determine OPS, but part of drafting a team is deciding whether to take a slugger who can't do anything else, or a guy who gets on base a lot, depending on who your other players are.

2:18 PM  
Blogger Anthony said...

Just criticisms, my friends, to which I will offer just counter proposals. But after class...

2:39 PM  
Blogger Anthony said...

Dodort and I just had an discussion before class that came down to this: Is the goal of the league to put together the best baseball team or best *fantasy* baseball team? I've been set on the former, because I figured the point of the non-pay league was to see who was the best evaluator of talent. In a pay league, the money keeps you intersted. In this league, it would be pride. But if our goal is to see who can better take advantage of the disproportionate weight given to the steals category, for instance, then that's not very intersting for me. If that's what we are doing, I yield competely to Mark as commish to set it up as he sees fit.

If we are planning to make it more serious, then maybe we can compromise. Here is a counter proposal:

Offense: Avg. (2), Slg. (2), RBI (2) R (1) SB (1)

Pitching: ERA (3) IP (2) K (1) SV (1) E (1)

We now have ten stats to work with. I think splitting up Avg. and Slg. makes sense, because Slg. is always a much higher number in the OPS calculus, giving Avg. less weight than it deserves. I don't like Ks, but it is discrete stat, it's not as redundant as WHIP, and not as arbitrary as Wins, so it works well.

Note that I've added errors. Depending on how we format the roto league, we could play that the team with the fewest errors gets the highest points in that category for the week.

Even if Yahoo cannot weight categories, which it probably can't, it wouldn't take much work at all to convert weekly stats according to the weight and post them on the blog. I would be willing to do it. This does assume, however, that we are using a Weekly Roto format, which I think is a lot of fun. But we can discuss that later.

4:07 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

This has been a very illuminating discussion in that nothing has been accomplished of any substance.

If Steiner's entire argument is boiled down to "categories of lesser importance being equal to those of greater importance" how about we just don't use SB as a stat? Correct me if I'm wrong, but Wins, as an example, is a relevant stat in awarding the Cy Young trophy (alongside ERA and Ks). By Tony's logic, the Cy Young Award is based on "arbitrary" and "redundant" statistics. This is a foolish thing to argue, I know.

This weighting of categories is interesting, and I like the idea of putting stats in their proper place. But in the end, I think its unnecessary.

Yes, you can have a great baseball team measured via the 5 X 5, and if Steiner's biggest problem is SBs (which I agree is a peripheral stat) then lets replace that with something else for offense. But the others (BA, OPS, RBI, R, Wins, ERA, SV, WHIP, Ks) are all very good measurements of talent and achievement; these stats will reflect who has the best players AND will be worthwhile for competition.

6:40 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

And as for IP, as a competitive category I think it is totally worthless. If you want to guarantee people are throwing their guys week in and week out, Yahoo has a setting where you can require a certain number of minimum innings pitched. Using WHIP will show you the quality of innings a pitcher has, and THAT reflects talent more than being present on the mound longest. Good luck, Mark.

6:43 PM  
Blogger Dodort said...

I like stolen bases as a stat. It usually covers a completly different type of player than the other batting stats. Anything that makes different players good in different ways adds to the stratagy of the game.

8:20 PM  
Blogger Anthony said...

IP is a valuable category in itself, and when taken together with ERA the two provide a more accurate reflection of performance than wins and strikeouts. If I had more time or more statistical ability, I would develop a stat the could weigh both ERA and IP in relation to each other, because that would truly capture a pithers value. Surely a 3.00 ERA is worth more over 250 innings than a 2.00 ERA over 25. I'm trying to measure value here, and I don't care whether someone makes the weekly minimum. I'm just saying that those who have low ERAs over greater innings should be rewarded.

Not to repeat myself, but wins depend on several variables completely out of the picthers control: His teams' offense and his teams' bullpen. That's what I mean by arbitrary. And to put forward baseball awards committees as pillars of logic isn't very convincing. Of course those awards are based on arbitrary factors! It was a common complaint of ours this fall, if you remember. Who doesn't think that Colon won this year because of his 20 wins? Ask Mo if he thinks 20 wins has some arbitrary value.

Adam, I don't know why you keep putting up Avg. and OPS, when Avg. is half of OPS. Isn't that redundant? Why not just break it up into Avg. and Slg., which covers your average and power hitting independently.

Look, this is a free fantasy league on Yahoo. Is there no interest out there for trying something new? I know some of it feels counterintuitive, but that's just convention weighing down upon you. We have an opportunity here to play the game a little differently, perhaps making it more reflective of what takes place on the field.

But I'm clearly outnumbered, so whatever you decide to do is fine.

8:27 PM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

The Cy Young Award is "arbitrary" folks. To be honest, Tony's ideas are interesting, but his logic leads to us looking only at OPS on offense and ERA/IP on defense. This is a very very boring world to live in, brother. We have the fantasy league, let us enjoy it! Mark, Dodort- I'm with you guys. And as for the rest of you men, now is the time to speak.

2:02 AM  
Blogger Anthony said...

I'm not your brother, but speaking of your blood, is Dave playing?

10:22 AM  
Blogger J. Marcavage said...

Guys,

I'm not opposed to any particular format (I know, I'm coping out, read on). I'm just looking forward to having fun and keeping in touch with this great sport of baseball. I think I speak for all of us when I say that.

Keep in mind that we have some time to talk about this. Decisions don't need to be made for another few weeks. That being said I'll reread this rather large discussion (I read it last night at 1am after 7.5 hours of coding), and come up with some opinions on the matter.

10:30 AM  
Blogger TheJackSack said...

He's already signed up in our money-league, I'll ask him if he wants to do this one too. However, I would like to see what this thing shapes up to being before I ask. And for the record, you ARE my brother, but you can't admit it, much like how you deny George Steinbrenner is jewish.

I've thought about the arguments you've raised, and I am left with the conclusion that you forgot why you love baseball. The random, the arbitrary, the unlikely are all part of the charm that is the game. The best team doesn't always win the World Series, the best pitcher doesn't always have the lowest ERA, and the best hitter doesn't always hit with the highest OPS. There are so many permutations to baseball, that's what makes it a special game.

This fantasy league has taken on a life of its own and we haven't even had one pitch thrown for the season. What is the worth of bragging rights if we're not enjoying ourselves? This technocratic approach you've proposed is dull, stifling and antipathetic to the joy of baseball. Your formulas may be good measurements to scout talent, but we're not scouts, we're spectators. We like HRs, we enjoy a 10K performance from Randy Johnson, we want to soak up the baseball season for all its worth.

Come home, Tony. Come home to baseball!

10:35 AM  
Blogger Anthony said...

Rubbish, of course.

12:05 PM  

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